CUA Columbus School of Law

Not Imminent, But Inevitable

It has been nearly 100 years since the appearance of one of the deadliest pandemics in human history, and health professionals cannot say for sure whether we are on the verge of a repeat.

The Spanish Flu of 1918 wiped out an estimated 50 million human beings around the globe in a startlingly short time. Given the ease and speed of modern travel, a similar outbreak could result in an even deadlier total in today’s highly mobile world.

Will it happen? Dr. Edward Tramont (above), associate director for special projects within the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, said today’s Avian Flu virus, known to health professionals as the H5N1 influenza, is eerily similar in construction and method of transmission to the Spanish Flu strain. Moreover, it is highly mutable and resistant to the latest anti-viral drugs, making scientific efforts to combat it uncertain.

“In many ways we are flying blind, making the best guess we can,” he said.

Dr. Tramont’s March 22 lecture at the Columbus School of Law, “Public Health Emergencies: Impacts on Legal Policy and Practice,” was sponsored by CUA’s Journal of Contemporary Health Law and Policy. The topic was chosen, according to journal editor Pamela Duke (4E), because “both legal and public health practitioners operate today without a clearly defined set of principles that they can reliably and efficiently apply toward allocating resources. We are hoping that Dr. Tramont's expertise can help shed some light on the epidemiological realities that face legal practitioners and policy makers when addressing public health emergency issues.”

Spread from bird to human, the avian flu first surfaced in China ten years ago. No documented cases have yet been reported in the U.S., but Dr. Tramont said that bird migratory patterns make the introduction of the flu into North America inevitable. It is a question of when, not if, and he warned that legal policy-makers as well as health care professionals had better be prepared.

“The chances of dying if you get infected are better than 50-50,” Dr. Tramont declared to his good-sized audience in Slowinski Courtroom. “Now, do you understand why we are nervous?”

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	Not Imminent, But Inevitable It has been nearly 100 years since the appearance of one of the deadliest pandemics in human history, and health professionals cannot say for sure whether we are on the verge of a repeat. The Spanish Flu of 1918 wiped out an estimated 50 million human beings around the globe in a startlingly short time. Given the ease and speed of modern travel, a similar outbreak could result in an even deadlier total in today’s highly mobile world. Will it happen? Dr. Edward Tramont (above), associate director for special projects within the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases at the National Institutes of Health, said today’s Avian Flu virus, known to health professionals as the H5N1 influenza, is eerily similar in construction and method of transmission to the Spanish Flu strain. Moreover, it is highly mutable and resistant to the latest anti-viral drugs, making scientific efforts to combat it uncertain. “In many ways we are flying blind, making the best guess we can,” he said. Dr. Tramont’s March 22 lecture at the Columbus School of Law, “Public Health Emergencies: Impacts on Legal Policy and Practice,” was sponsored by CUA’s Journal of Contemporary Health Law and Policy. The topic was chosen, according to journal editor Pamela Duke (4E), because “both legal and public health practitioners operate today without a clearly defined set of principles that they can reliably and efficiently apply toward allocating resources. We are hoping that Dr. Tramont's expertise can help shed some light on the epidemiological realities that face legal practitioners and policy makers when addressing public health emergency issues.” Spread from bird to human, the avian flu first surfaced in China ten years ago. No documented cases have yet been reported in the U.S., but Dr. Tramont said that bird migratory patterns make the introduction of the flu into North America inevitable. It is a question of when, not if, and he warned that legal policy-makers as well as health care professionals had better be prepared. “The chances of dying if you get infected are better than 50-50,” Dr. Tramont declared to his good-sized audience in Slowinski Courtroom. “Now, do you understand why we are nervous?”
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